Crude oil may see two consecutive weekly declines, while metals generally fall; polysilicon and lithium carbonate lead gains, coking coal plunges over 5% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on May 30:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with only SHFE nickel rising by 1.14%. The rest of the metals fell, with SHFE tin leading the decline at 2.87%, while the drops for the other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina contract rose by 0.27%.

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.22%, the main polysilicon contract rose by 1.42%, and the main silicon metal contract fell by 1.65%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 0.25%.

In the ferrous metals series, most prices fell, with only stainless steel rising by 0.12% and HRC falling by 0.81%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 5.28% and coke fell by 2.13%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:05, overseas market base metals collectively fell, except for LME aluminum, with LME tin falling by 1.06% and the drops for the other metals all within 1%. LME aluminum was flat at $2,450.5/mt.

In the precious metals sector, as of 15:05, COMEX gold fell by 0.58% and COMEX silver fell by 0.53%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.7% and SHFE silver rose by 0.07%.

Market conditions as of 15:05 today

》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Aspects:

[Several Major Financial Policies to be Released at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum] The Shanghai Municipal Government held a press conference on May 30 to introduce the relevant details of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum. Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, revealed at the press conference that during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central financial regulatory authorities will release several major financial policies. Li Kexin, Deputy Director of the General Office of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), revealed at the press conference that the PBOC is accelerating the preparation of policies to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center. Since the beginning of this year, the PBOC and the Shanghai Municipal Government have jointly studied and introduced a series of policy measures to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, with some policies having been released recently. For example, they jointly issued the "Action Plan for Further Enhancing Cross-border Financial Service Facilitation in the Shanghai International Financial Center" and held a press conference. They support the establishment of a "Technology Board" in Shanghai's bond market, have launched a pilot program for cross-border capital pools for multinational corporations in Shanghai, and support Shanghai in issuing the "Several Provisions on Promoting the Development of Free Trade Account Business in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone in the Pudong New Area of Shanghai Municipality." "There are also some other policies that we are urgently accelerating the progress of," Li Kexin said. Li Kexin also disclosed that Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, will attend the opening ceremony of the forum, deliver an opening speech, and give a keynote address. Additionally, Zhu Hexin, Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, will also attend and deliver a keynote speech. (Caijing)

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 30 was 7.1848 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:05, the US dollar index rose by 0.15%. The US tariff policy has been temporarily restored, and the rebound in initial jobless claims indicates signs of a slowdown in the job market. Powell remains steadfast, emphasizing that the policy path will entirely depend on economic data and its implications for the economic outlook. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24 was 240,000, against market expectations of 230,000, and 227,000 in the previous week, which was revised to 226,000. The second estimate of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US for Q1 was a decline of 0.2%, against an expected decline of 0.3% and an initial estimate of a decline of 0.3%.

On May 29 local time, the US Fed issued a statement indicating that, at the invitation of the President, Fed Chairman Powell met with Trump at the White House that day to discuss economic development issues, including growth, employment, and inflation. The statement noted that Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy but emphasized that the policy path would entirely depend on upcoming economic information and its impact on the economic outlook. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro:

Today, data including the monthly rate of personal spending in the US for April, the annual rate of the core PCE price index in the US for April, the annual rate of the PCE price index in the US for April, the preliminary monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the US for April, the Chicago PMI for May in the US, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May in the US, the annual rate of Tokyo CPI in Japan for May, the unemployment rate in Japan for April, the monthly rate of actual retail sales in Germany for April, the annual rate of actual retail sales in Germany for April, the preliminary annual rate of CPI in Germany for May, the annual rate of seasonally adjusted M3 money supply in the Eurozone for April, the annualized quarterly rate of GDP in Canada for Q1, the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of GDP in Canada for Q1, and the annual rate of seasonally adjusted GDP in Canada for March will be released.

In addition, on May 30, the Taiwan Stock Exchange in China was closed for the day due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and there was no night session trading at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE in China on the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. Fed Governor Kugler will deliver the opening remarks at the 5th Annual Online Symposium on Macroeconomics and Finance hosted by the Federal Reserve.

Crude oil:

As of 15:05, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US crude oil down by 0.39% and Brent crude oil down by 0.38%. The weekly trend is expected to record a second consecutive week of decline, pressured by expectations of another production increase by OPEC+ in July and uncertainties surrounding the US tariff policy.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, namely eight member countries of the OPEC+ group, are expected to make a decision on increasing oil production in July at their meeting on Saturday. The downward trajectory of oil prices primarily stems from the prospect of increased supply, as investors anticipate that OPEC will once again raise production.

"Production is expected to increase significantly again," said Robert Rennie, head of commodities and carbon research at Westpac, in a report, noting that the increase could be higher than the 414,000 barrels per day (bpd) decided at the previous two meetings. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase stated in a report that the global supply surplus has widened to 2.2 million bpd, potentially necessitating price adjustments to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance. They expect prices to remain within their current range before falling to the high end of the $50-60 range by the end of the year.

On the demand side, concerns about an economic downturn sparked by tariff issues have clouded the outlook. JPMorgan Chase analysts pointed out that global oil demand has improved compared to the previous week, driven by a rebound in US oil consumption amid strong travel during the Memorial Day long weekend in the US. Analysts indicated that as of May 28, global oil demand had increased by approximately 400,000 bpd month-on-month, which was 250,000 bpd lower than expected. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

►Aluminum prices retreat, aluminum scrap prices generally adjust downward [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap]

►[SMM MHP Daily Review] May 30: Indonesian MHP prices remain stable

►[SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] May 30: Nickel salt prices remain stable

►Silver prices weaken ahead of Dragon Boat Festival, spot trades significantly slow down [SMM Daily Review]

SMM Weekly Review

►Preliminary results of mid-year negotiations fall short of expectations; impact of KK mine accident may be underestimated [SMM Weekly Review of Copper Concentrates Spot Market]

►Imports arrive alongside smelter maintenance, processing fees continue to rise in June [SMM Weekly Review of Zinc Concentrates]

►Peak season for copper wire and cable market has passed; smelter operating rates decline for five consecutive weeks [SMM Weekly Review of Wire and Cable Market]